Macau casino stocks continued their downward trajectory on Monday as the region moves to criminalize unlicensed money transfers intended for gambling purposes. The Special Administrative Region (SAR), a key territory under China’s jurisdiction, is tightening its grip on money transfer operations, which have long been a workaround for high-stakes bettors entering Macau with limited cash.
China, which governs Macau, restricts visitors from carrying more than $5,000 in cash into the casino hub. To sidestep these restrictions, many gamblers have relied on local money exchangers, sending cash ahead of their arrival. Additionally, China limits the amount its citizens can withdraw from bank accounts via debit cards when abroad, further increasing the demand for these money transfer services in Macau. However, Beijing’s recent crackdown on this practice is adding pressure to an already fragile sector.
New Regulations Cause Concern Among Investors
The ongoing slump in Macau casino stocks is now being exacerbated by news that the SAR plans to criminalize unlicensed money transfer operations used for gambling. Under the updated “‘Law to Combat Gambling Crimes,” operators facilitating these transfers without proper licensing could face up to five years in prison.
The impact of these new regulations is particularly concerning for investors, as it may disrupt the premium-mass segment—a critical part of the market that spends more than the mass-market bettors but less than VIP players. This segment has become increasingly vital for Macau’s concessionaires, especially after the previous crackdown on VIP junket operations, which decimated that industry.
“In our opinion, the news about the Macau government’s decision to criminalize money exchange activities could bring some noise and lead to near-term share price weakness,” commented Citigroup analysts George Choi and Ryan Cheung in a recent report.
Potential Impact on Premium-Mass Segment
Analysts are concerned that the crackdown on unlicensed money transfers may disproportionately affect premium-mass players, who typically rely on these services. While many players have legitimate ways of transferring funds to Macau, the uncertainty surrounding the new regulations could deter even these players, further weakening investor sentiment.
“Although most players have their own legitimate ways to get their funds over to Macau—and these small money touts are unlikely [to be] the main fund facilitator for premium mass players—we are afraid that this negative news could add uncertainties and hurt the already fragile investment sentiment against the Macau gaming sector,” added the Citi analysts.
The exact volume of cash exchanged through unregulated operators is unclear. However, in 2023 alone, Macau authorities detained approximately 10,000 individuals involved in these services, indicating the widespread use of such operations.
Macau Casino Stocks: A Fragile Market
Despite a series of positive monthly gross gaming revenue (GGR) reports, Macau casino stocks remain under pressure. A Bloomberg Intelligence index tracking these stocks is hovering near 170, down from over 240 in May, signaling persistent investor unease and skepticism about the sector’s value.
“This negative news could add uncertainties and hurt the already fragile investment sentiment against the Macau gaming sector,” observed Choi and Cheung.
Nevertheless, the analysts also highlighted that Macau continues to be a top destination for outbound Chinese tourists, suggesting that there could be long-term potential for recovery if the market stabilizes.
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